Prudential norms have been tightened, bank capital bolstered, and the supervisory systems strengthened. India has also had the wisdom and self-confidence to submit itself to the scrutiny of a financial Sector Stability Assessment. But, weaknesses remain, and need to be addressed. Problems with uti, the development finance institutions, urban cooperatives, and weak banks all underline the importance of strengthening supervision, governance, and mechanisms for the resolution of non-performing loans, which are high by international standards. The governments commitment to reduce its ownership in the financial sector is welcome and should be pursued. Fiscal Reform At nearly 10 of gdp, indias general government deficit is among the highest in the world. General government debt has risen to almost 65 of gdp and all the consolidation since the 1991 crisis has been erased.
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There exist large regional differences. There could be cross subsidization of health care. Economic infrastructure The demand for infrastructure services continues to outpace supplies. Unless theses shortfalls are met by creating new capacities in power, telecom, rail, roads and ports, there would be serious constraints on faster economic growth. A wave of privatization and deregulation has been sweeping in this sector around the globe lately. This would promote improvement in efficiency and service quality. This should help be encouraged. Rakesh Mohan Committee recommended: - existing sector specific enactments be unified into single statue - an autonomous regulatory body for each infrastructure sector - an Infrastructure coordination Committee be constituted - special Purpose vehicles (SPVs) used to fund infrastructure financial sector reforms having prudential and. It means ensuring that governance in private financial institutions is strong enough to ward off political interference and ensure that decisions are taken for good commercial reasons. And it means that the authorities take swift and effective action to deal with weak or insolvent institutions. India has gone a considerable way in this direction.
education: Fifty four years after independence, literacy rates are only 68 percent for men and 45 percent for women. In China the literacy rate is 91 percent for men and 76 percent for women. Literacy is the first step towards empowerment. Universal primary education is an effective anti-poverty measure that promotes equity. The economic returns, both private and social, on investing in education are high. A world Bank (1995) review for Asia shows these to be 39, 19 and 20 for primary, guaranteed secondary and higher education, respectively. The actions needed to achieve theses goals include improving the quality of schools with special programs for rural areas, improving physical infrastructure and making them accountable for their success. health : Preventive health carewould be cost effective.
Following are the important industrial reforms needed:, industrial deregulation : Priorities here include eliminating preferences for small-scale producers, further easing constraints on foreign direct investment, streamlining regulatory procedures, revamping bankruptcy legislation, and privatization of psus., labor market reform: The repeal remote of legislation blocking layoffs. international Trade : Phased reduction in import duties, lowering tariffs of basic intermediates would help overcome the adverse effects of protection. Services Providing 54 of the countrys gdp, and employing general 20 of the population; this sector exhibits largest productivity increases. But in a general environment of low growth and lack of demand, it is difficult to see the services sector trotting along at 8 plus. Special attention needs to be paid to this sector which is indirectly covered under social and economic infrastructure. Social infrastructure education, health, and the social safety net Freedom from ignorance, disease and fear, along with freedom from want, are the best guarantors for human development. But education, health care, water and sanitation services which can ensure these freedoms are not accessible to all.
This would require credit and technology flow to dry land areas by broadening the regional base of agriculture. Controls on the prices, trade and movement of agricultural commodities should be abolished. A sharp reduction in the role of government procurement agencies and the dereservation of agricultural processing would also be sensible. Thus, it is imperative on the part of India to maintain a footing in international platforms through the Agreement on Agriculture (AOA). Variable import duties can be used to counter the effect of large variations in world prices. Industry, the industrial sector will have to grow at over 10 to achieve the target of 8 growth if gdp. This represents a major acceleration from its past performance; the sector grew at only about 7 in 1990s. Also, industry will have to face much stronger international competition with removal of quantitative restrictions (QRs) and decline in the role of public sector as seen by various disinvestments.
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Growth during analysis the past decade has not been sufficiently broadly based. Despite the impressive performance of the services sector, industrial growth which still has the greatest potential to provide high-wage employment for the 70 of the labor force still working in agriculture has slowed sharply since the middle of the decade. Indian business leaders have joined a growing chorus of voices warning that India's economy is due for a sharp slowdown unless the reform process is speeded. The environment remains less today supportive than it was: the demand for exports is weaker, and the supply of capital less reliable and to" governor Jalan, despite the relatively inward-looking nature of the Indian economy, it cannot remain insulated from these international developments. The cii's concerns follow a wave of worries from official and unofficial quarters. Despite low and stable inflation and rising foreign exchange reserves, the country has "deep systemic maladies".
The government itself is being blamed for failing to tackle the country's faltering economy, particularly in terms of cutting bureaucracy and allowing privatization. Indian policymakers know fully well about the important impediments to stronger growth, among them poor infrastructure, a high cost of capital, and persistent fiscal imbalances all of which have dampened investment spending by the private sector. In addition, growth is being hampered by relatively low rates of foreign direct investment and a tendency to waste precious tax revenues on unproductive subsidies rather than worthwhile investments in, for example, primary education and health care. All these obstacles, and more, need to be tackled. We can primarily lists the reforms under the following heads: - agriculture - industry and trade - services - social infrastructure education, health, and the social safety net - economic infrastructure - financial sector reforms - fiscal situation. Agriculture, rangarajan estimated that a 1 increase in agricultural output tends to raise industrial production.5 and augments national income.7. There is a need for the agriculture sector to grow by 4 to achieve the overall gdp growth target.
For higher economic growth, India also requires a substantial enhancement of overall investment levels and improvement in economic efficiency. This has become all the more difficult in this deceleration phase of economic growth. Urgent steps are needed to arrest the deceleration and restore momentum. This is proving to be difficult because it has to take place in an environment where the world economy is slowing down. The problem was sought to be resolved during late 1980s and early 1990s.
The ambitious reform program undertaken in 1991 included: significant industrial and trade liberalization; financial deregulation; improvements to supervisory and regulatory systems; and policies more conducive to privatization and foreign direct investment. These changes reawakened what keynes called the Animal spirits of Indias entrepreneurs, and gave a sharp boost to growth. There has been considerable progress since then. It is summarized as follows:, economic growth : It averaged 6 a year, led by strong advances in the services sector. The it industry has proven particularly dynamic and is now of global renown and its success proves that India is perfectly capable of competing and succeeding at the top international levels., poverty : During the nineties, the poverty rate is estimated to have fallen from. Measures of income inequality also declined during this period., social indicators : Life expectancy has increased from 55 to 63 years; the infant mortality rate has dropped from 108 to 70 per thousand live births; and literacy has risen from 45 to 68 for men. External debt has declined to around 22 of gdp, and the current account deficit has been held to less than 1 of gdp in recent years. however, to say in the words of the imfs unofficial motto, complacency must be avoided. Clouded Outlook, there is widespread agreement within India that much more needs to be done if the country is to achieve its economic potential.
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We have gained immense success in increasing the life expectancy at birth from 32 years with in 1951 to 64 years today. As against 45 of the population under poverty line in 1951, today only about 26 of the population lives below poverty line. Percentage of literate population has increased yardage from 17 in 1951 to 65 in 2001. For 8 consecutive years, we have been exporting food grains now. There is an unprecedented creation of an impressive reservoir of scientific and technical personnel. Though we have a long way from gnp rate of growth.5 per annum in initial thirty years and per capita income rate of growth.3 per annum in the same period, to about.5-7 gnp growth and 6 Per capita income rate. Indias improved economic performance since 1980s has substantially increased its share of world income from.4 in 1970s to about.8 now; but this is nowhere to be in comparison with Chinas superior economic performance because of which it more than doubled its share from. The prime reason for Chains success strategy is the increase in their rate of investment which increased from about 24 of gdp in 1951 to 40 today.
Traditionally, the level of per capita income has been regarded as a summary indicator of the economic well being of the country and growth targets have therefore focused on growth in per capita gdp. In the past, our growth rates of gdp have been such as to digest double our per capita income over a period of 20 years. Recognizing the importance of making a quantum jump compared with past performance, and with the population expected to grow at about.6 per annum, planning commission requires the rate of growth of gdp to be around.7 over the tenth and Eleventh Plan periods. Mckinsey reports that 6-6.5 estimate of gdp growth is insufficient to stave off swelling unemployment as the population grows. It is only higher economic growth that can reduce poverty and provide sustainable economic security and sustain a stable pace of economic development. Thus 8 is taken to be as an intermediate target for the short run. Achievements, from being literally in darkness at the time of independence, we have come a long way.
There has been a great deal of discussion in recent years on economic reforms, but not sufficient clarity about its objectives, rationale or scope. The principle way to realize 8 growth is through improvements in efficiency in both public sector and the private sector. However, this improvement could be materialized only by way of well planned policies and their rigorous implementation. It would be worth the effort if the entire process of implementing the plan is identified and followed at all levels. This requires sufficient political will and a minimum consensus because bill Crosby mentioned: I dont know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody. Thus, what is required on the part of the Indian state is to act on the lines of Japan and try to dissipate the image of being a soft state as noted by the nobel laureate Kravis. Why is 8 growth rate desirable?
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